Despite problems during Ukraine invasion, do not underestimate Russia’s subs: Del Toro – Breaking Defense Breaking Defense

WASHINGTON: The early underwhelming performance by the Russian military in Ukraine should not put doubt in anyone’s mind about the threat the country’s submarine forces still pose, according to Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro.

“The shortcomings that we’ve seen with regards to the Russian army and Ukraine — that same disadvantage doesn’t necessarily translate over to the Navy, and their submarine force groups,” he said while speaking at the McAleese and Associates conference Wednesday.

The Navy secretary added that Russia has continued to invest “strategically” and “wisely” in its submarine force at a rate that “approaches ours.”

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US Navy officers hardly ever shy away from sounding the alarm Russia’s naval fleet poses. As recently as this month, the Marine Corps second-most senior officer, Gen. Eric Smith, told reporters that while China remains the “pacing threat” in most domains, he still views Russia as the biggest cause for concern undersea.

But since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine three weeks ago, there has been a litany of public commentary about the ostensible ineptitude of the Russian ground forces: insufficient logistics to supply troops, armored vehicles being stolen by local farmers and the general failure to move nearly as fast as US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin expected.

Earlier this week the leaders of the US intelligence community said the failure showed Putin’s calculus for starting a war “profoundly flawed.”

“Looking at the Russian operation so far, they’re having tremendous problems with logistics and communications. The whole effort seems shambolic. Some structural, some probably more specific to this operation,” tweeted Michael Kofman, a researcher focused on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security as well as the Center for Naval Analyses.

When asked if these shortcomings imply anything about Russia’s capability to do harm undersea, Del Toro said he is leaning on the side of caution.

“Never underestimate their capabilities to cause damage,” he said.

Because most navies are far less transparent about their force compositions than the US, it is difficult to know precisely how many submarines Russia has in its fleets at any given time, but recent public reporting suggests it is currently in the high 60s or low 70s.